The iPad-Desktop’s End?
Steven Frank leads us on a speculative-but-insightful journey on the future of computing as illuminated by (you guessed it) iPad. Frank sees a “New World” in front of us, which began in 2007 with the introduction of iPhone or possibly a few years earlier with the arrival of Web 2.0 applications. The gist of his argument is that computer usage (broadly speaking) will be less of a tinkerers’ paradise where computer users needed some under-the-hood knowledge to keep versatile all-purpose machines running. We’ll have less freedom in how we can customize our machines, but hey will be much easier for most people to use, as well as less prone to breaking down. Specifically, in tech terms:
The bet is roughly that the future of computing:
1. has a UI model based on direct manipulation of data objects
2. completely hides the filesystem from the user
3. favors ease of use and reduction of complexity over absolute flexibility
4. favors benefit to the end-user rather than the developer or other vendors
5. lives atop built-to-specific-purpose native applications and universally available web apps
Even Frank, as an ‘Old-Worlder’, admits that he’s not entirely comfortable with the idea. But that may not be the point. The unwashed masses have got computers they can use easily now, they are happy as hell and will be catered-to commercially. As much as anything, this might dictate the direction we’re going. What do you think: are the days of hacking drawing to a close?
I think things have been shifting in that direction for a while. Long gone are the days when using a computer meant learning to program, or at minimum use a terminal. And honestly? That’s a good thing. The simple fact of the matter is that the ease of computer use has given everyone (not just the unwashed masses) major benefits. Amazon, eBay, Google? All of those are the direct result of making computers easy to use for the average person.
That said, I’m dead convinced there will always be the need for hackers, and there will always be those who have the drive to step up to the challenge. While Linux is highly unlikely to take over the world of desktop computing, it does have a solid following among those who need and want the complete control it offers, such as the system administrators who manage the websites that make up the internet. Last I checked, Linux-based systems were the standard OS for servers. I believe it’s made decent headway in the embedded systems world as well.
Why would the future be any different? There will always be those who have a need for the complete control, and there will always be a market for them. Moreover, who exactly is going to drive all of the change? It certainly isn’t the unwashed masses who’re coming up with the new bits and pieces of technology. Tech people are here to stay, whether or not the mass-market shifts away from our particular need and desire for absolute control.
And of course, there’s always the middle ground. There are times when I want complete control, such as when I’m coding an app, and there are times when I don’t really care, I just want my webpage and how you get it to me doesn’t matter. It doesn’t have to be one or the other, so long as the availability of going deeper and customizing is there.
Joe thank you very much for such a thoughtful comment. I don’t disagree with anything you said. I guess we can’t be surprised that things would evolve towards super-easy-to-use computers; there is a segment of the population that would’ve preferred ease-of-use over “freedom” all along. I believe that segment is much larger than we tech types-it just stands to reason.
Maybe the sounds of alarm that you’re hearing from a lot of the “tech types” is just overreaction to this new world where folks who really don’t care about how their gadgets work are going to be a lot more catered to and satisfied. Getting those people involved in using computers, many of them for the first time, should really represent an opportunity for all the developers out there actually. We’ve been making programs and applications for each other all these years (that’s an oversimplification I know), and now these folks will be ready to buy whatever we can make that entertains or informs them, or that they use in any way. They have devices like iPad in their hands now. (And btw similar devices from a lot more companies are coming, obviously. Apple may be leading the way but Microsoft, HP, Dell, et al. will hardly be capitulating!)
As you say, there is no way in the world that the need for people who create things/do things on these devices–hackers, developers, whatever– goes away, or even decreases. Why would it? We collectively are going to be spending more and more time in environments created by these devices, in the broadest sense, and the ecosystem that we are watching arise in front of us is going to need many people to create this new world. Tinkering is just going to look different than it did when we were growing up…
Thanks again Joe, and please visit again!